Server Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Good Morning everyone.I am immersed in a wind study for a wind farm in SpainI am currently the part of the calculation of probability of exceedance P50 P75 P90, I would like to know if wasp is done with one of its modulesor if I do it by myself manually.in this case, someone could give me some literature to do since I'm a little lostSome ideas. how to do it?My Best Regards Link to comment

jfcorbett Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 P50 is just the mean, i.e. your energy production prediction. For the other Pxx's, you need to estimate the uncertainty on that number. Look at all the things you did in your analysis (wind measurements, modelling, calculations, assumptions etc.), estimate the uncertainty on each of these things, and finally combine them all to get a global uncertainty on the energy production. If you assume that this uncertainty represents the standard deviation of a Gaussian process, then you just need a bit of math to get P75, P90, P-whatever. Link to comment

Server Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Hello jfcorbettFirst thanx for your answer.In my study i have a 12 % of uncertainty.The average estimated energy of my park is 4468 MwI suppose that this is the p50 Right? Now I must do a gaussian distribution (with 0,12 like standard desviation)for know p75 p90 of one yearNow if i want to know the p75 in 4 years? what i must do?As you can see im a bit lostThanx again Link to comment

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