#1 2017-03-28 22:43:07

guidogr
Member
Registered: 2016-12-22
Posts: 3

Question about global uncertainty

Hello,

I have a question regarding the uncertainty estimates. When using the "add/remove uncertainty estimates" there is an "Example" button which gives a set of uncertainty estimates on wind speed and AEP. I was wondering if these estimates are just a random set or a set of standard estimates.

In case these are random estimates as I imagine they are because I suppose that these estimates depend largely on site specific conditions, are there any standard or good practice estimates that you suggest using?

Thank you in advance.

Best regards,

Guido.

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#2 2017-04-07 00:21:43

Morten
Administrator
From: DTU Wind Energy
Registered: 2009-11-02
Posts: 133
Website

Re: Question about global uncertainty

Hi Guido,


The uncertainty causes and there estimates are nearly arbitrary and just shown for inspiration. You should try make new estimates for each project, and ideally these should be based on statistical data. Some are easy to find, e.g. the accuracy of anemometers which can be read from instrument manuals or wind-tunnel calibrations test. My colleague Mark Kelly is working on error estimates for flow modelling in WAsP, e.g. on the vertical extrapolation, see http://www.wasp.dk/news/nyhed?id=A7044C … CB44A7F112. Other estimates, like uncertainty related to turbine availability, can be harder to find. For this you need access to data from similar project and consider the maintenance strategy, e.g. what is the service plan, limitation on the site access, access to spare parts etc.


With best regards,
Morten

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